You wanne have a discussion about this with hutch? But if they say that it isn’t true you wont believe them.. so what’s the point? I’m sure that if you look at the drop rates vs all the packs opened, they would be above expected to be honest. Does that mean someone can’t have a bad streak? Not at all. We’ve all been there. I’m sure everyone also has had a good streak allready. But yeah, the difference is that no one complains about that. That’s why we only see the bad streaks wich makes it look like the drop rates aren’t what is promised.
(...) But if they say that it isn’t true you wont believe them(...)
Are you reading minds or what's happening here? The point is that a lot of players are upset. Some transparency would help here. Why don't we have some basic counters showing the total CFs, Ceramics and Premiums opened? Put them somewhere in the Achievements screen, and we could calculate our drops ourselves and compare across the payerbase.
(...) But if they say that it isn’t true you wont believe them(...)
Are you reading minds or what's happening here? The point is that a lot of players are upset. Some transparency would help here. Why don't we have some basic counters showing the total CFs, Ceramics and Premiums opened? Put them somewhere in the Achievements screen, and we could calculate our drops ourselves and compare across the payerbase.
Even if they do, there will be moments the % will be below promised and moments where it will be above promised. This wont change a thing. People should stop blaming bad streaks on “changed” or “biased” droprates.
Compare it with a lottery game we have in Europe: euromillions. Chances of winning it are 1 in 15000000. Every game, more then 15000000 million people buy a ticket. Yet the jackpot isn’t supposed to fall because of that. Why? Because every ticket has that chance on it’s own. Same with the droprates on here. 2.5% doesn’t mean that when you open 100packs you should get 2,5 s cars. It means that for each of those 100 packs, there is a chance of 2,5% of getting an s. I don’t see why this is so hard to get. Yeah some people are lucky but luck doesn’t hang around the same person for ever...
(...) But if they say that it isn’t true you wont believe them(...)
Are you reading minds or what's happening here? The point is that a lot of players are upset. Some transparency would help here. Why don't we have some basic counters showing the total CFs, Ceramics and Premiums opened? Put them somewhere in the Achievements screen, and we could calculate our drops ourselves and compare across the payerbase.
If people are that concerned with drop rates, why aren't they already keeping track of your packs openings? If they are already doing that, then pack counters aren't going to alleviate anything. Based on @LEGENDNADA's original post, he at least counts, so how would counters help him? The only way counters would help is if they also counted how many of each rarity type you pull, but again, if you're concerned with that, why isn't someone already doing it themselves.
Didn't know you can have your record from the support Oo
I will ask, seems interesting (even if I have more than 5 month of non recording)
I asked them once, and they included some prize cars in that. Their data system isn't as robust as you'd like in getting questions answered. I'm not blaming them, I'm just saying it isn't.
I cant believe you guys really are having this discussion. There are several players tracking their Drops over a long run and their Findling is that the drop rates are accurate.
I cant believe you guys really are having this discussion. There are several players tracking their Drops over a long run and their Findling is that the drop rates are accurate.
I can easily buy this. I'd like to make sure low throphy players don't have better ones
I cant believe you guys really are having this discussion. There are several players tracking their Drops over a long run and their Findling is that the drop rates are accurate.
I can easily buy this. I'd like to make sure low throphy players don't have better ones
There are several things about this (it's not a personal response for you, evilprofesseur, it's about the point you have summarized :
1) If this was true, you might argue that the competition is rigged. Basically everyone gets what they were promised (along the lines of the rng), but some players get even more. Those have an advantage in events involving new Tags or new Cars in general. You could argue that this devalues the senior player's efforts with their ordinary drop rates. If you ask me, when someone accuses a company to provide a fraudulent service, this person should provide proof. Otherwise I would be very angry if I were the company. Very thin ice and im surprised they allow us to speak about it openly on their platform :-). It may be complicated to provide failsafe data to support the hypothesis, but it is possible. Posting incidental observations will most certainly not help the case. (However this is exactly what conspiracy believers do all the time...)
2) Would it really be a problem? I say no, because long term players have massive advantages with their garages. The recent finals showed, that having some good pulls doesnt help you, you also need to have kept the food to upgrade you cars. Lucky drops don't give you said food.
3) But if you say that unfair advantages of newer players are a problem (which I could totally understand!) we could ask for more transparency. This is something I have read a few times. However there is a problem: If the drop rates are not rigged, there is nothing to be transparent about. You could still demand to have the code evaluated but I'm not sure Hutch will follow up on this one. (Might be a reasonable thing to do, tho, if Hutch has nothing to hide.)
4) What are other explanations for the observations? I'm giving several options here:
a) Survivorship Bias (look it up for a legit definition/explanation): We see the few newer players who have been very lucky and of course we see them on top of the rankings because this is what we are fighting for. We don't see the rank 200-500 Newbies who didn't happen to get lucky. Also, players with good drops may continue playing whereas players with bad drops might just drop out.
b) Some of them really dump some serious money. Their name or their trophies don't reflect that, of course. c) The trophy-display is still bugged so it might show wrong numbers.
As for me, I' neither convinced nor concerned.
For transparency: I had no exceptional pulls. I bought the elite pack and 2 CF during the finals and was lucky enough to obtain 2 Epics (rq 65 and rq70). I upgraded all my UR cars but had limited time this weekend, especially yesterday with a sick wife & child and didn't manage to play effectively during the last minutes of the final. That's why I dropped out of T2 (T1 was never in reach) and finished T3. I'm fine with that, can't expect to have the pulls all the time that help you to obtain the 2% spots in T1...
4) What are other explanations for the observations? I'm giving several options here:
a) Survivorship Bias (look it up for a legit definition/explanation): We see the few newer players who have been very lucky and of course we see them on top of the rankings because this is what we are fighting for. We don't see the rank 200-500 Newbies who didn't happen to get lucky. Also, players with good drops may continue playing whereas players with bad drops might just drop out.
This right here, we see some newer players posting about amazing drops and people form an opinion that packs are rigged in favour of newbies, we don't get to see the majority of new players pulls as those players either aren't on the forums or don't post their rubbish pulls therefore affecting the perception people have of the pack weight.
Add that to the fact that a lot of the older players no longer post what they pull even if it's amazing so you no longer have that reference point when observing drop rates.
Unless anyone can show me substantial evidence of pack weight manipulation for new players not just anecdotal incidents then I can't reasonably believe it's happening.
There's a lot in this thread, but I wanted to make it clear - we do not manipulate drop rates for newer players / any other player group. We have our drop rates publicly available and we didn't change anything in recent times, if ever.
We did give out some free packs recently. If we just take the free ER pack given out last week, estimating from our player numbers and probability of a drop, it's likely that the Legendaries have dropped to at least a few hundred players, some of whom were relatively new to the game. And of course, you can add to that the extra 15 ER CFs, and the desire of some to share their pulls online. This may look like everyone's getting Legendaries, which isn't the case.
We did give out some free packs recently. If we just take the free ER pack given out last week, estimating from our player numbers and probability of a drop, it's likely that the Legendaries have dropped to at least a few hundred players, some of whom were relatively new to the game.
It's not really case closed, it's simply all we'll ever get out of Hutch.
We're not basing our theories on people sharing their drops, were basing it on seeing almost every low trophy player we come across having an ER legendary while the same percentages don't apply to us experienced players.
While I admit it is a conspiracy theory, it still looks bad and the adamancy of the Hutch employees we get to talk to has always made me wonder... we don't get to talk to the actual developers of the game at all. It's only ever Robin, Tim and Dmitri who don't touch any code as far as my understanding goes.
What's stopping a developer from adding in code to make legendaries drop more often for low trophy players? Robin, Tim and Dmitri probably would never know. If I was a developer of a middling mobile game, the thought would certainly cross my mind. It's job security. If Top Drives dies, Hutch don't really have another cash cow. Getting new players addicted while the old players drop off from frustration and anger makes a lot of sense.
I know it's a stretch but I wanted to suggest the thought I've had for probably more than a year now.
BUT... this whole discussion is entirely pointless anyway because nobody would ever admit it if it was true.
It's not really case closed, it's simply all we'll ever get out of Hutch.
We're not basing our theories on people sharing their drops, were basing it on seeing almost every low trophy player we come across having an ER legendary while the same percentages don't apply to us experienced players.
While people are running across these low-trophy players with legendaries, are they also running across their spending habits? The number of trophies doesn't mean jack. Someone with 5 trophies can open a jack load of unlimited Premium packs, too.
BUT... this whole discussion is entirely pointless anyway because nobody would ever admit it if it was true.
.....And no one would every believe any Hutch employee that would come forward and say the conspiracy theories weren't true. People believe what they want to believe. This is another reason this discussion is pointless.
It's not really case closed, it's simply all we'll ever get out of Hutch.
BUT... this whole discussion is entirely pointless anyway because nobody would ever admit it if it was true.
There is so much to unpack here but I really do not have the energy. So I will keep it short
- A Hutch employee has made a public statement on a forum they own and run stating that packs are not manipulated. Do you not think they would consider the legal implications of stating this if it was not true?
- Rogue Developer? Really? He/She is allegedly making a game changing decision on their own that no other developer would ever spot as the code is only ever handled by one person. (/s) Right.
- You are still seeing the low count trophy players with legendaries because you want to see them. They are not everywhere. I was rolling around in the 300s at the weekend (no hand whatsoever) and I saw almost exclusively low trophy players, running Ultras and Supers almost entirely.
Yes it is pointless. Nobody would admit to it because it is not true. I am more willing to believe aliens at Roswell than this.
HeissRod said: (...)If people are that concerned with drop rates, why aren't they already keeping track of your packs openings? (...)
And if people want to play a good car game, why don't they make one themselves?
Some people keep track of the packs, and some others don't. Each of them has his own reason for the choice, I would guess that many are just lazy to keep track - I am; sometimes is just not practical to record the pulls, you just click the buy button, get disappointed and move on. If a pop-up question would be offered in game asking if the player would like a statistic on their pack openings I think a majority of players would want that information. It's a fun statistic for a card collecting game.
01718 said: (...)If you ask me, when someone accuses a company to provide a fraudulent service, this person should provide proof. Otherwise I would be very angry if I were the company. (...)
As a comment applying to many mobile apps - considering the game/pack code is not public, how would the proof look like? How could any player get this proof (without maybe hacking, which would be illegal)? If somehow the proof would be available, there would not be any need for a thread like this, the info would reach the old players on private channels and an ocean of refunds (at least) would hit any game company.
The game is very opaque when it comes to own statistics, so I think it's understandable that the players will question the distribution of pulls, especially when people are prone to noticing patterns (in this case low rq/trophies = new leggies). If a player with 2 Rimacs/Eggs opened all the offer/final packs then fair enough, but there are no easy statistics available. Accusing players of being conspiracists when they only want more transparency does not help, it's just an attempt to silence them and bury the discussion.
I don't know if drop rates are broken or manipulated (I know there are
the same talks and doubts for online poker while the RNG are
theoritically checked by third parties), but based on my own humble
case, I have some doubts (and quite some frustration) as well. Playing
for more than 500 days, and I pulled my (only) 5 Leg on my first 300
days, and nothing since then (even if I can't complain too much about
Epics pulls lately), while technically I got a better and better garage
and then opened more and more Premium and CF packs. Maybe still not
enough for a good odds study on my case, ok maybe.
Still I think there would be less discussions also if the odds for pulling Leg were less ridiculous. It's even more ridiculous seeing the number of Leg in the game. It gives me the feeling that unless becoming what we call a whale, I would (maybe) have 1 or 2 more Leg big maximum in one year.
I
know the games are different, but I was also playing Hearthstone, and
it was lot more manageable to pull Legendary cards from time to time,
even though there are not as many Leg cards in HS compared to Top
Drives. Another difference is that all the packs there have the same
value, so it's all about the quantity of packs you win or buy if you
want to higher your chances (but I agree this would not work well with
TD). But at least they introduced a pity timer some time ago, guaranteeing a Legendary card every x packs. I would have more respect for TD if a such feature would also exist, if the odds remain so ridiculously low.
I
like TD but I get more and more bored about never pulling any Leg. I'm not a 100% F2P player since I sometimes spent a few bucks,
but I almost stopped, feeling most of CF packs I could open were a
rip-off (or let's say they clearly don't worth the amount in gold). I
feel this is kind of thing (too low odds) is quite demotivating, and is
kind of frustrating thing could be one of the reason pushing me to
leave the game in some future.
Playing
for more than 500 days, and I pulled my (only) 5 Leg on my first 300
days, and nothing since then (even if I can't complain too much about
Epics pulls lately), while technically I got a better and better garage
and then opened more and more Premium and CF packs. Maybe still not
enough for a good odds study on my case, ok maybe.
This is a mistake a lot of people make when being upset about this subject. The number of days you have been playing is meaningless. What matters is the number of packs you have opened. The odds are the same for someone who opens 50 packs in one day compared to someone who opens 50 packs in 6 months.
Still I think there would be less discussions also if the odds for pulling Leg were less ridiculous. It's even more ridiculous seeing the number of Leg in the game.
You're contradicting yourself here. In one statement, you want to be able to pull legendaries more often, but in the other you aren't happy about the number of legendaries in the game. You can't have both.
I opened 15 ER packs and got 2 Epics 0 legendaries. Have been playing since the beginning of the game. When I asked support about this they closed the ticket instead and ignored the question. I already knew I was going to get the "look at the probabilities" answer so whatever. Didn't expect anything from them like always
I opened 15 ER packs and got 2 Epics 0 legendaries. Have been playing since the beginning of the game. When I asked support about this they closed the ticket instead and ignored the question. I already knew I was going to get the "look at the probabilities" answer so whatever. Didn't expect anything from them like always
What exactly did you contact support about? What was the issue?
I opened 15 ER packs and got 2 Epics 0 legendaries. Have been playing since the beginning of the game. When I asked support about this they closed the ticket instead and ignored the question. I already knew I was going to get the "look at the probabilities" answer so whatever. Didn't expect anything from them like always
What exactly did you contact support about? What was the issue?
May i ask, do you work for support? Else... why dont you give them a chance to answer on their own?
I had a ticket originally open about another issue when I asked about my pulls because I can't open a new ticket without them closing it first. They responded with 2 paragraphs of apologies I think it was about about their late response and closed my ticket. Never acknowledged my question or my statement of how I am pretty much going to quit because of horrible pulls I have been receiving (since the beginning of opening my account). I only pulled 2 Epics out of 24,000 gold worth of packs. So yeah, that bothered me
For what it’s worth I don’t believe these theories. For me it comes down to risk Vs reward. Sure there would be a bit to gain from juicing new player packs, but all it takes is one disgruntled employee or whistleblower, and their cash cow is dead, not to mention the legal implications. No company in their right mind would go down this path, especially with the spotlight on loot boxes.
For context I saved up and opened all packs, and received one solitary epic (the worst spyker). The chances of good stuff from packs is so low, and the simple fact is one player opening 2 ceramics could pull better than a chump like me opening 15 CF 🤷🏻♂️ These finals were 100% luck based, so you’re going to get no-trophy guys mixing it with the normal elite.
I also spotted a whole load of low trophy guys rocking Eggs, but tend to be pleased for them, they have probably grinded away in T3 for months, let them have a run.
The chances of good stuff from packs is so low, and the simple fact is one player opening 2 ceramics could pull better than a chump like me opening 15 CF
Yepp, this is a really good point here. Low drop rates can give you the impression that something's not right, because your expectations and the reality can sometimes be very different.
Just think about this: Take a 100 players who all open just one CF pack. 3 of them will pull at least one legendary, and obviously brag about it. Take a 100 players who all open all 15 CFs for the finals. 63 of them will not pull a single legendary, and rant about it.
So for every lucky guy, there will be 21 others who feel disappointed because of the 24k gold wasted. That's quite a difference.
I believe no one intentionally tampers with drop rates but seeing how every little update causes the most random bugs all over the place, how can I be sure that drop rates are always constant and never bugged?
The chances of good stuff from packs is so low, and the simple fact is one player opening 2 ceramics could pull better than a chump like me opening 15 CF
Yepp, this is a really good point here. Low drop rates can give you the impression that something's not right, because your expectations and the reality can sometimes be very different.
Just think about this: Take a 100 players who all open just one CF pack. 3 of them will pull at least one legendary, and obviously brag about it. Take a 100 players who all open all 15 CFs for the finals. 63 of them will not pull a single legendary, and rant about it.
So for every lucky guy, there will be 21 others who feel disappointed because of the 24k gold wasted. That's quite a difference.
This is a very plastic description of the odds and the psychology related to it. Thank you, once again!
(And by plastic I am not referring to the worst pack you can buy for cash in top drives ;-))
Comments
The point is that a lot of players are upset. Some transparency would help here. Why don't we have some basic counters showing the total CFs, Ceramics and Premiums opened? Put them somewhere in the Achievements screen, and we could calculate our drops ourselves and compare across the payerbase.
I asked them once, and they included some prize cars in that. Their data system isn't as robust as you'd like in getting questions answered. I'm not blaming them, I'm just saying it isn't.
me 150€ with no legends
I can easily buy this. I'd like to make sure low throphy players don't have better ones
4) What are other explanations for the observations? I'm giving several options here:
c) The trophy-display is still bugged so it might show wrong numbers.
Add that to the fact that a lot of the older players no longer post what they pull even if it's amazing so you no longer have that reference point when observing drop rates.
Unless anyone can show me substantial evidence of pack weight manipulation for new players not just anecdotal incidents then I can't reasonably believe it's happening.
We did give out some free packs recently. If we just take the free ER pack given out last week, estimating from our player numbers and probability of a drop, it's likely that the Legendaries have dropped to at least a few hundred players, some of whom were relatively new to the game. And of course, you can add to that the extra 15 ER CFs, and the desire of some to share their pulls online. This may look like everyone's getting Legendaries, which isn't the case.
We're not basing our theories on people sharing their drops, were basing it on seeing almost every low trophy player we come across having an ER legendary while the same percentages don't apply to us experienced players.
While I admit it is a conspiracy theory, it still looks bad and the adamancy of the Hutch employees we get to talk to has always made me wonder... we don't get to talk to the actual developers of the game at all. It's only ever Robin, Tim and Dmitri who don't touch any code as far as my understanding goes.
What's stopping a developer from adding in code to make legendaries drop more often for low trophy players? Robin, Tim and Dmitri probably would never know. If I was a developer of a middling mobile game, the thought would certainly cross my mind. It's job security. If Top Drives dies, Hutch don't really have another cash cow. Getting new players addicted while the old players drop off from frustration and anger makes a lot of sense.
I know it's a stretch but I wanted to suggest the thought I've had for probably more than a year now.
BUT... this whole discussion is entirely pointless anyway because nobody would ever admit it if it was true.
.....And no one would every believe any Hutch employee that would come forward and say the conspiracy theories weren't true. People believe what they want to believe. This is another reason this discussion is pointless.
There is so much to unpack here but I really do not have the energy. So I will keep it short
- A Hutch employee has made a public statement on a forum they own and run stating that packs are not manipulated. Do you not think they would consider the legal implications of stating this if it was not true?
- Rogue Developer? Really? He/She is allegedly making a game changing decision on their own that no other developer would ever spot as the code is only ever handled by one person. (/s) Right.
- You are still seeing the low count trophy players with legendaries because you want to see them. They are not everywhere. I was rolling around in the 300s at the weekend (no hand whatsoever) and I saw almost exclusively low trophy players, running Ultras and Supers almost entirely.
Yes it is pointless. Nobody would admit to it because it is not true. I am more willing to believe aliens at Roswell than this.
Some people keep track of the packs, and some others don't. Each of them has his own reason for the choice, I would guess that many are just lazy to keep track - I am; sometimes is just not practical to record the pulls, you just click the buy button, get disappointed and move on.
If a pop-up question would be offered in game asking if the player would like a statistic on their pack openings I think a majority of players would want that information. It's a fun statistic for a card collecting game.
As a comment applying to many mobile apps - considering the game/pack code is not public, how would the proof look like? How could any player get this proof (without maybe hacking, which would be illegal)?
If somehow the proof would be available, there would not be any need for a thread like this, the info would reach the old players on private channels and an ocean of refunds (at least) would hit any game company.
The game is very opaque when it comes to own statistics, so I think it's understandable that the players will question the distribution of pulls, especially when people are prone to noticing patterns (in this case low rq/trophies = new leggies). If a player with 2 Rimacs/Eggs opened all the offer/final packs then fair enough, but there are no easy statistics available.
Accusing players of being conspiracists when they only want more transparency does not help, it's just an attempt to silence them and bury the discussion.
Playing for more than 500 days, and I pulled my (only) 5 Leg on my first 300 days, and nothing since then (even if I can't complain too much about Epics pulls lately), while technically I got a better and better garage and then opened more and more Premium and CF packs. Maybe still not enough for a good odds study on my case, ok maybe.
Still I think there would be less discussions also if the odds for pulling Leg were less ridiculous.
It's even more ridiculous seeing the number of Leg in the game.
It gives me the feeling that unless becoming what we call a whale, I would (maybe) have 1 or 2 more Leg big maximum in one year.
I know the games are different, but I was also playing Hearthstone, and it was lot more manageable to pull Legendary cards from time to time, even though there are not as many Leg cards in HS compared to Top Drives.
Another difference is that all the packs there have the same value, so it's all about the quantity of packs you win or buy if you want to higher your chances (but I agree this would not work well with TD).
But at least they introduced a pity timer some time ago, guaranteeing a Legendary card every x packs.
I would have more respect for TD if a such feature would also exist, if the odds remain so ridiculously low.
I like TD but I get more and more bored about never pulling any Leg. I'm not a 100% F2P player since I sometimes spent a few bucks, but I almost stopped, feeling most of CF packs I could open were a rip-off (or let's say they clearly don't worth the amount in gold).
I feel this is kind of thing (too low odds) is quite demotivating, and is kind of frustrating thing could be one of the reason pushing me to leave the game in some future.
You're contradicting yourself here. In one statement, you want to be able to pull legendaries more often, but in the other you aren't happy about the number of legendaries in the game. You can't have both.
Take a 100 players who all open just one CF pack. 3 of them will pull at least one legendary, and obviously brag about it.
Take a 100 players who all open all 15 CFs for the finals. 63 of them will not pull a single legendary, and rant about it.